As promised, here is our 3rd quarter-post Labor Day market analysis. This year the fever finally broke on the overheated housing market in the East Bay. Several factors conspired to get us where we are and we will opine on where we think it might be going over the next 6 to 18 months. 

 The real estate market continues to shift to a balanced market as interest rates (monthly payments) go up and the stock market (down payment) goes down. As buyers' purchasing power declines, sellers are receiving more “at list price” offers than a year ago.

 As you look at these charts, you will see several changes in trends. The days on market have gone from low-teens to mid-twenties. Average sales price over list price has dropped from 10% over list price to sales averaging at list price. These two factors, working together, show that buyers’ patience is growing as they shop for new homes. Few buyers are jumping in early and/or over bidding and if they are, the home must be really exceptional.  You will also see that the top of the market was in the second quarter of this year. The average sales price has retreated from those highs to where they were about a year ago. These prices are still slipping and probably will for the time being.  Gone are the days of putting a sign up and closing escrow. Sellers are learning to be more patient also as we move to more normalized marketing time periods.

 If selling in the short term (0-12mo), we recommend selling sooner than later because of this declining market. In typical years we don’t recommend listing your home after the beginning of October until after the first of the year as fewer buyers are interested in disrupting their holidays with home shopping, buying and moving, and that still holds true. But having the home ready soon after the holidays will be your best bet. And if you are a buyer this can be a good time to shop for a home.

 If thinking about selling or buying a home, now is an interesting time to start that conversation. Give us a call.